{"id":2840,"date":"2026-05-11T15:32:08","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T08:32:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/international.binus.ac.id\/finance\/?p=2840"},"modified":"2026-05-11T15:32:08","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T08:32:08","slug":"gold-in-times-of-turmoil-is-it-truly-a-safe-haven-for-your-portfolio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/international.binus.ac.id\/finance\/2026\/05\/11\/gold-in-times-of-turmoil-is-it-truly-a-safe-haven-for-your-portfolio\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold in Times of Turmoil: Is it Truly a Safe Haven for Your Portfolio?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-path-to-node=\"4\">In recent months, global markets\u2014including the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX)\u2014have felt the weight of geopolitical instability and soaring energy prices. When the &#8220;red&#8221; dominates our screens, investors instinctively look for a place to hide. Traditionally, that place is gold.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"5\">But does gold actually work the way we think it does? A seminal study by Dirk Baur and Brian Lucey, published in the <i data-path-to-node=\"5\" data-index-in-node=\"117\">Financial Review<\/i>, provides a data-driven look at how gold behaves during market crashes. Their findings offer vital lessons for today\u2019s Indonesian investor.<\/p>\n<h3 data-path-to-node=\"6\">Hedge vs. Safe Haven: What\u2019s the Difference?<\/h3>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"7\">The researchers make an important distinction that every investor should understand:<\/p>\n<ul data-path-to-node=\"8\">\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"8,0,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"8,0,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">A Hedge:<\/b> An asset that is uncorrelated with stocks <i data-path-to-node=\"8,0,0\" data-index-in-node=\"51\">on average<\/i>. It helps balance a portfolio over long periods.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"8,1,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"8,1,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">A Safe Haven:<\/b> An asset that is uncorrelated (or even negatively correlated) with stocks specifically during <i data-path-to-node=\"8,1,0\" data-index-in-node=\"108\">extreme market stress<\/i> or crashes.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 data-path-to-node=\"9\">The Findings: Gold as a &#8220;Shield&#8221;<\/h3>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"10\">Baur and Lucey analyzed decades of data and found that gold is indeed a <b data-path-to-node=\"10\" data-index-in-node=\"72\">safe haven<\/b>. When stock markets plunge, gold often holds its value or increases, acting as a shield for your capital. However, there is a catch: <b data-path-to-node=\"10\" data-index-in-node=\"216\">this safe-haven effect is usually short-lived.<\/b><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"11\">The study found that the peak &#8220;safe haven&#8221; benefit typically lasts around <b data-path-to-node=\"11\" data-index-in-node=\"74\">15 trading days<\/b>. After the initial shock of a crisis, gold often begins to follow the broader market trends again as investors sell off their gold holdings to cover losses elsewhere (margin calls) or as the initial panic subsides.<\/p>\n<h3 data-path-to-node=\"12\">Why This Matters for Indonesia Today<\/h3>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"13\">As Indonesia navigates high energy costs and global uncertainty, the &#8220;Baur-Lucey Effect&#8221; reminds us of three things:<\/p>\n<ol start=\"1\" data-path-to-node=\"14\">\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"14,0,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"14,0,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Timing is Everything:<\/b> Gold is most effective as a protection against the &#8220;shock&#8221; of a crisis. If you wait until the middle of a prolonged downturn to buy, you may miss the primary safe-haven window.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"14,1,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"14,1,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Diversification is Not Static:<\/b> Gold shouldn&#8217;t be your <i data-path-to-node=\"14,1,0\" data-index-in-node=\"54\">only<\/i> strategy, but having a 5-10% allocation can drastically reduce the &#8220;drawdown&#8221; (peak-to-trough loss) of your portfolio during the first few weeks of a market panic.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"14,2,0\"><b data-path-to-node=\"14,2,0\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Psychology Drives the Price:<\/b> The study suggests that gold&#8217;s value in a crisis is driven by investor psychology. In a &#8220;flight to quality,&#8221; gold remains the world\u2019s most trusted asset when paper currency and stocks feel risky.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h3 data-path-to-node=\"15\">The Bottom Line<\/h3>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"16\">While we cannot control global energy prices or international tensions, we can control our portfolio&#8217;s resilience. Following the evidence from Baur and Lucey, gold remains an essential tool for the modern investor\u2014not as a get-rich-quick scheme, but as a critical insurance policy for when the market&#8217;s storm hits hardest.<\/p>\n<hr data-path-to-node=\"17\" \/>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"18\"><i data-path-to-node=\"18\" data-index-in-node=\"0\">Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In recent months, global markets\u2014including the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX)\u2014have felt the weight of geopolitical instability and soaring energy prices. When the &#8220;red&#8221; dominates our screens, investors instinctively look for a place to hide. Traditionally, that place is gold. But does gold actually work the way we think it does? A seminal study by Dirk [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":2841,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","category-slideshow"],"featured":{"small":"https:\/\/international.binus.ac.id\/finance\/files\/2026\/05\/gola-480x213.png"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/international.binus.ac.id\/finance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2840"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/international.binus.ac.id\/finance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/international.binus.ac.id\/finance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/international.binus.ac.id\/finance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/international.binus.ac.id\/finance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2840"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/international.binus.ac.id\/finance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2840\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2842,"href":"https:\/\/international.binus.ac.id\/finance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2840\/revisions\/2842"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/international.binus.ac.id\/finance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2841"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/international.binus.ac.id\/finance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2840"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/international.binus.ac.id\/finance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2840"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/international.binus.ac.id\/finance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2840"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}