New Normal and The End of Pandemic Socially

Living in the midst of pandemic is living in the middle of uncertainty and risk, which will eventually trigger another pandemic (pandemic of fear) in the society. Fear gives spiral effect to the impact in health sector, thus causes multidimensional crisis in all aspects of social economy. Fear is also causing social restriction and quarantine, which then requires production process to be ceased and results in the decrease of consumption level, pushing the economy to its nadir.

These uncertainties and risks can only be suppressed through massive tests and the discovery of effective vaccine in preventing and combating Covid-19. As long as these two things are not happening, then there are risks in every form of activities and social events. For Indonesia, there has not been any sign that these risks are eased off. Until 6 June 2020, the data shows the increasing trend in the number of cases and deaths caused by Covid-19. For both of these items, Indonesia is currently at the second rank among South East Asian countries, below Singapore. With various damages caused by Covid-19, the question is when will this pandemic come to an end?

Based on history, a pandemic will end due to two reasons: medical and social reasons. A pandemic will end due to medical reason through the discovery of vaccine that brings immunity to combat the virus. Meanwhile, a pandemic will end socially when the society is at a point where they are already frustrated and tired of the fear caused by the pandemic, which raises the courage to perform activities despite the prevalent risks.

From the perspective of medical treatment, various efforts are performed in many countries, including Indonesia, to discover the Covid-19 vaccine. However, this effort requires process. Even those who are optimistic mentioned that the soonest this vaccine will become available is at the beginning of 2021. In addition, there is always a possibility that this effort will fail, and no vaccine is discovered at all. The history of pandemic is also the history of battles between deadly virus and the advancement of science in medical field. An unpleasing fact is that these battles are often won by the virus. This shows how weak and lagging our civilization in terms of medical advancement are compared to new diseases.

In her recent article, Gina Kolata, a well-known American science journalist, wrote that in history, it is very rare that an effective vaccine is discovered to fight the deadly virus that causes major pandemic resulting in the deaths of hundred of thousands even million of lives, such as the Bubonic Plaque (Black Death), the 1918 Spanish Flu (918), and the 1968 Hong Kong Flu. She even added that the virus that caused the 1968 Hong Kong Flu is even exist and lives nowadays as seasonal flu disease, without a vaccine is ever discovered.

As a result, it is not surprising if most of the global pandemics came to an end not because of medical reason by the discovery of vaccine, but rather due to social reason. Frustration towards the destruction and fear of the pandemic causes the society to find courage to resume social economy activities. This is what appears to happen as well with Covid-19, where it will end socially first before medically. It is proven that many countries are starting to reopen themselves and perform some relaxations from social restriction and quarantine, including Indonesia who is starting to enter the transition phase, although the pandemic is still widespread.

This decision is causing fierce argument. Medical and health experts, due to public safety issue, are against this relaxation measure. On the contrary, other parts of the society, driven by business sector, are advocating to end social restriction and quarantine for economic reasons. This is a complicated debate as both parties have equally valid reasons. Nevertheless, arguments based on economic reasons are almost always superior in a public policy debate. Thus, new normal is seemingly inevitable. Like it or not, acknowledged or not, Covid-19 pandemic will end soon, at least socially.

New normal itself is life with social economy activities, even though some protocols are put in place to minimize the risk of transmission. This requires a change in the routine and habit in various social economy activities. New normal poses a risk to increase the transmission of Covid-19 virus as occurred in several countries. For example, in South Korea, new normal increased the virus transmission, known as the second wave. As a result, South Korea’s authorities postpone the new normal and extend the social restriction and quarantine to its people.

Still, new normal does not always fail. For example, Hong Kong successfully implemented the new normal and avoided the second wave of the pandemic. Likewise, for several European countries, such as Austria and Germany, which managed to implement new normal with no increasing trend of Covid-19 confirmed cases. The success of several countries is based on two things: the continuity of massive testing, tracing and treatment to the patients and suspects, and high discipline in implementing health protocol in various activities.

The first thing is relied heavily on central and local governments in providing testing, tracing, and treatment facilities comprehensively and affordably, due to its public goods nature. The second thing goes back to each individual’s awareness, not to be careless and to maintain discipline in implementing the protocols in resuming activities.

This article is written by Mohamad Ikhsan Modjo, one of our faculty members. The original version of this article was published in Jawa Pos, 8 June 2020.

(IM)